The Election Year 2027: Why President Bola Tinubu May Win or May not Win
By Abbati Bako,Political Strategy and Communications Analyst, Alumnus the University of Kent,UK’s European University
There is an unwritten rule in Global Southern Hemisphere politics: swallow all 10 IMF pills at once, and you will not live to see a second term. This happened in many Global Southern Hemisphere of Democratic Nations, especially in Africa, Asia and South American Nations.
The pills are famous. We call them the “Washington Commandments or Consensus”. Professor John Williamson (Washington Based Economist) was the Leading Consultant that initiated the 10 prescriptions of WB/IMF for the Economic Emerging Nations to swallow the pills to solve their economic precarity.
1. Remove fuel subsidy
2. Float the currency
3. Hike electricity tariffs
4. Raise VAT and taxes
5. Freeze public wages
6. Privatize national assets
7. Cut social spending
8. Open borders to imports
9. Take more dollar loans
10. Let the market decide who eats
*No president who implemented all the 10 prescriptions in one term has won re-election in the Southern Hemisphere Nations. Not even one! The 10 economic prescriptions are the same economic medicine for different illnesses for countries of the world despite their location, political leadership, resources and so on and so forth.
*The evidence
Country Nigeria:
The year IMF Pills Swallowed was 2012. The election result was lost by His Excellency the former President Dr. Goodluck Ebele Jonathan in the year 2015 as a result of he tried subsidy removal that’s what created protests and lost elections to the (late) former President Muhammad Buhari in the year 2015.
Argentina:
Mauricio Macri 2015 to 2019 and took a $57bn loan. Inflation 54%. Lost elections of 2019.
Ecuador:
Lenín Moreno 2017 to 2021. He removed fuel subsidy at 2019 that resulted to Nationwide riots. Didn’t run.
Ghana Nana Akufo-Addo:
The 2022 IMF deal, debt restructuring. Lost election of 2024 by a mere 1.6m votes.
Sri Lanka:
Gotabaya Rajapaksa 2019 to 2022. Tax cuts + IMF U-turn Chased out by protesters.
Zambia:
Edgar Lungu’s in 2021 and IMF austerity talks. Lost 2021 elections by mere 1m votes.
Pakistan:
Imran Khan in 2018 to 2022. IMF subsidy removal, FX float. Ousted 2022 and jailed.
*The mechanism is simple:
WB/IMF reforms transfer pain to the poor immediately, but deliver growth to the elite later. Democracy does not wait. Ballots come every 4 or 5 years. Stomachs growl every day. Human individuals’ economy is the life wire of human beings. Nothing is more important than the economy in human life. Hence, security, economic interplay are vital for human life.
Subsidy goes in January. Food protests start in March. Transport doubles by June. By December, the middle class is wiped out. By election year, the president is a campaign advert for the opposition. That is the pattern from Lagos to Lima to Lahore.
His Excellency Ahmed Bola Tinubu:
Tinubu took all 10 pills in 29 days.
May 29, 2023: “Subsidy is gone”.
June 14, 2023: Naira floated.
July 2023: Electricity tariffs up 240%.
2024: VAT reform, student loan scheme tied to fees, coastal highway loans. Etc.
He did in 1 month what took President Mauricio Macri of Argentina 4 years to implement. That is either genius or Political Harakiri (Political Suicide).
*Here is the catch:
The IMF has no polling unit. The World Bank has no PVC. Only poor and hungry Nigerians will vote after 4 years (1460 days or 48 months or rather 36,000,000+hours). That is democratic system for you as popularized by George Washington “is a game of the people, by the people and for the people”. Meaning that, Demo—Power, Cracy—People. So, power belongs to the people. Period!
Example of other countries:
Countries that survived and implemented 3 or 4 pills, then paused. Brazil under Lula did cash transfers first. India under Modi did subsidy reform over 10 years. Rwanda under Kagame never floated its currency. They sequenced the pain.
*Nigeria took the full dose on an empty stomach. Mr. President, here is the brief from history for you and future leaders in our country to learn from other nations:
1. Jonathan removed the subsidy in 2012. Occupy Nigeria happened. He lost 2015.
2. Buhari avoided full IMF. He finished 8 years, broken but intact.
3. You removed everything at once*. 2027 is not guaranteed by the constitution. It is guaranteed by bread.
*The way out is sequencing and compensation:
1. Pause pill for 4 years to 10 years until GDP growth hits 6% for 8 quarters.
2. Publish a monthly “Pain vs Gain” dashboard. Show Nigerians what they lost, and what they gained. In fact no data, no trust. Nigerians deserve accountability.
3. Cash transfers must hit before tariff hikes. Rwanda sends money by mobile. Kenya uses Hustler Fund. Nigeria uses promises.
Conclusion:
Democracy is not for economists. It is for people. And people do not eat GDP.
If the goal is to save Nigeria’s economy, you must first survive Nigeria’s election. Because no IMF report has ever sworn in a president. Only voters in Nigeria do that.
The Washington Commandments may please Washington. But they bury presidents in the Global South. Sir, choose wisely, 2027 is already counting.
Abbati Bako,psc,bsis,UK,Political Strategy and Communications Consultant and Researcher in Globalization Policy, Former Electoral Commissioner @Kansiec, Former Special Adviser on Public Affairs to Former Governor of Kano State Dr. AU Ganduje and Former Treasurer @Kano Chamber of Commerce @abbatibakogmail.com